Weather Forecasting for Renewables

Weather forecasts are a key resource for the operation and integration of wind and other varagible generation plants into the transmission network. Forecasts are also essential for planning maintenance, and ensuring safe operations on site.

The issues

• How are forecasts actually used in renewable energy?
• How good are the forecasts?
• How could forecasts be improved?

How are Forecasts Used?

The Utility Variable-Generation Integration Group (UVIG) is an excellent source of information about how forecasts are used. Information available through www.uvig.org includes

• A list of central utility wind forecasts.
• A living summary of markets and market rules for variable generation in North America.

How Good are Forecasts?

How could forecasts be improved?

• The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was a Department of Energy (DOE)-sponsored project from to look at the effect of improved boundary conditions on weather forecasts for wind energy. The field study ran from October 2010 to September 2012.
  • Enhanced Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting and Value to Grid Operations. A summary paper by Kirsten Orwig and others, presented at the 11th Annual International Workshop on Large- Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems, and at Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Power Plants Conference Lisbon, Portugal, 2012.
  • The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public-Private Partnership Addressing Wind Energy Forecast Needs. A summary paper by Jim Wilczak and others, published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS) in 2014.
  • The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partneship for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Qunatifying the Benefits of Utility Operations. A report by NOAA, Wind Logics and AWS Truepower to DOE in April 2014.
  • The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations – the Southern Study Area. A report by Jeff Freedman and others to DOE in April 2014.