2024 Mahoney Lecture

The Future of Forecasts: Earth System Prediction in the 21st Century

14 May 2024, 10:00am ET  |  In-Person and Livestream

Lecturer: Dr. Antonio J. Busalacchi
President, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), Boulder, CO

Coming out of WWII, our knowledge of the physics and dynamics of the atmosphere together with the advent of digital computing ushered in the present era of numerical weather prediction. Today, we find ourselves at a similar juncture. Decades of observations from the Earth Observing System, related understanding of Earth System Science and Earth as a coupled system, combined with the prospect of exascale computing, have placed us on the cusp of a new era of Earth System Prediction.

At the other end of the temporal spectrum far away from day to day weather prediction, climate change projections from decades to centuries have served as the basis for policy decisions on how best to respond to ever increasing levels of greenhouse gases. In between weather prediction and climate change projections is a spectral gap of subseasonal to decadal in which numerous infrastructure, investment, and policy decisions are made. Society requires expanded prediction capabilities and future environmental products beyond the bounds of weather prediction for areas such as coastal oceans, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, agriculture, air and water quality, regional CO₂ and other chemical constituents, and environmental health parameters.

Development of an environmental prediction capability will require incorporation of additional components of the Earth System beyond the physical climate system such as biological properties of terrestrial and ocean ecosystems and an assessment of the limits to their predictability. The core elements and expertise needed in this regard include atmospheric general circulation models, ocean circulation models, land surface models, interactive vegetation models, marine ecosystem models, atmospheric chemistry models, global carbon cycle models, assimilation techniques for atmosphere-ocean-land, population dynamics, crop models, infectious disease models and modules to name a few. The challenge now is to bring these core elements together within a common infrastructure and with a central focus on subseasonal to decadal prediction of the Earth System in the broadest sense. Furthermore, the prospect of Earth System prediction has unique policy relevance at both the national and international levels with respect to agriculture, hydrology, ocean resources, energy, transportation, commerce, health, and global security.

Watch the Livestream

Dr. James R. Mahoney Memorial Lectures Delivered to Date:

2023 - The lecture was given by Veronica Johnson, Chief Meteorologist, WJLA TV ABC. It was titled "The Coming Age Of ATSC 3.0: How it Could Help Build an Alliance to Advance Public Emergency Information and Severe Weather Warnings." 

2022 - The lecture was given by Lee and Geraldine Martin and Dr. Susan Solomon, Lee and Geraldine Martin Professor of Environmental Science, MIT. It was titled "Solvable: How Environmental Success Gives Hope for The Planet.

2021 - The lecture was given by Dr. Margaret Leinen, who discussed some of the interrelationships between the ocean, weather and climate and how ocean observing systems are contributing to our knowledge of all three.

2020 - The lecture was given by Holden Thorp, Editor-in-Chief of the Science family of journals on Monday, 26 October. It was titled “Curating a Robust Scientific Record in a Challenging World." 

2019 - The lecturer was Dr. William Easterling, Director of the Geosciences Division of NSF, who covered aspects of transformational adaptation to climate change. It was held on Tuesday, 26 March 2019 at the NOAA Auditorium of the Herbert Hoover Building, 1401 Constitution Avenue, Northwest, Washington, D.C. 

2018 – The Lecture "Science in a Post-Truth World" was delivered by Dr. Jane Lubchenco, Distinguished University Professor and Marine Studies Advisor to the President, Oregon State University, and former NOAA Administrator (2009–2013) This marks the third lecture that honors the memory of Dr. Mahoney. It was held on Monday, 23 April 2018 at the American Association For The Advancement Of Science (AAAS) Auditorium, 1200 New York Avenue, NW, Washington, DC. Watch Dr. Jane Lubchenco's Lecture | Watch All Speakers

2017 – The Lecture “Better Information for Better Decisions: Scientific Assessments to Support Risk Management and Solutions” was delivered on May 1, 2017 in Washington, DC by Richard H. Moss, Ph.D., Senior Scientist, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Joint Global Climate Research Institute and Adjunct Professor, University of Maryland. See program here.

2016 – The Inaugural Lecture “Climate Change, the Ocean, and Us” was delivered on September 19, 2016 in Washington, DC by Susan K. Avery, Ph.D., President Emerita, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. See program here.

James Richard Mahoney, Ph.D

1938-2015

The Annual James R. Mahoney Memorial Lecture was established in 2016 in memory of Dr.  James (Jim) Richard Mahoney who passed away in September 2015. The Annual Lecture, which takes place in Washington D.C., has been initiated by a group of his former colleagues and will be conducted in cooperation with the American Meteorological Society (AMS) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), two organizations pivotal to Jim’s professional career. The Annual Lecture will honor Jim’s memory in perpetuity by featuring an annual lecture by a distinguished speaker on a relevant environmental science and/or policy issue of the day.

Dr. Mahoney was a former Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere/Deputy Administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. In that position, he directed the 13-agency U.S. Climate Change Science Program. Throughout his career, Dr. Mahoney advised on earth and environmental science issues at the forefront of global climate change and the environment generally in the United States and around the world. He served as Chairman of the Roundtable on Climate Change Education for the National Academy of Sciences.

Earlier, Dr. Mahoney was director of the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program, working in the Executive Office of the President. He co-founded the firm of Environmental Research & Technology, Inc. in 1968, one of the country’s earliest firms devoted to environmental management and technology. From 1966 to 1974 he served on the faculty of Harvard University’s School of Public Health.

Dr. Mahoney was a Fellow and former President of the 13,000-member American Meteorological Society and he served on several committees of the National Academy of Sciences dealing with weather and climate, environmental protection and science education.

Dr. Mahoney received his BS degree in Physics from LeMoyne College and his Ph.D in Meteorology from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).